Transfers Battle, Chess or Mess?

Transfers Battle, Chess or mess?

The Tale of Two cities

May 27, 2009. Barcelona news invaded the universe with a stunning treble. Press all over the globe writing praise. Rivals before supporters bowing to the masters. Babies cried the blaugrana name the moment the sunlight tipped the first kiss on their cheeks introducing them to the world. Wives turning more enthusiastic to watch Barcelona shows week in week out, complained no more that their husbands pretend being sick every Saturday, just to make sure they stay home to watch some kicking. Lovers favorite gift is no more a rose or a song, but a DVD of Messi Highlights, Iniesta laser show passing the ball around, and a Documentary program on the Geographic channel about a man having a Bat-Radar to catch his teammates movement, and orchestrating the football symphony of the Catalan troops. Xavi, the great.

Talks may start about the recent economic crises, Mediterranean food, Microsoft attempt to bounce back after windows Vista flop, Global warming, China growth rate, or Britney Spears. But will all end up pointing out how amazing it is to watch Barcelona. Mixing facts with fantasies, where Barcelona –The city- became the third pole of the planet, and that’s where the compass of the heart and mind leads you to, wherever you are.

504.64 KM (313.58 Miles), Bearing NE, there is another City, with a flipped compass. Getting crazy for being outshine by the Rivals. No way they can accept to be in the shadow. And when you are desperate you hang by a hair. Florentino Perez is the name. Bouncing back is the aim.

The Mad-ride, new president

After leaving the club from the backdoor, Perez returned riding the horse of hopes and promises. He was aware that the first thing needed is to put Real Madrid back to place under spotlights. He was aware allowing Barcelona to win the champions’ league in Madrid next season will be unacceptable and unforgivable. If he want to keep his head, he need to act fast. But how can he overcome the gap separating his team quality than that’s of Barcelona? Sign the best players available.

Madrid splashed the cash buying Ronaldo and Kaka. There was no time to delay things so they were willing to handle the overprice just to make this possible. In the other hand, such signings shows the will of setting a promising football project . Something needed to convince the other string of signings to join the white shirts.

I won’t evaluate the impact of the two players on Real Madrid squad, with all the pros and cons included. But I can put myself in Barcelona administrative position, where everyone is wondering what is happening? Why we signed no players yet?

Real Madrid activities had two impacts on the transfer market: First, prices inflation. Any player will cost now at least 15% than his realistic price. Clubs all over the globe started to sense Barcelona reaction after Real Madrid signings. How desperate they became. How far they will take it soft getting abused. This way whenever Barcelona target a player, the player’s club can demand the price that suits “the situation” , and not the player quality. By the situation I mean, Real Madrid banged the transfer signings and made their supporters excited, Barcelona Management need such transfers to hit back. And the second impact is the money pumped into some other clubs budgets, making them more competitive in the transfer market than before. Barcelona had to deal with that. And it happened straight after. “Our transfer budget will be 30 Millions”, Laporta criticizing Madrid over spending. The inflation it cause. Pointing out that it’s not “Barcelona module”. Sala I Martin assuring we won’t pay 65 Million for one player.

That’s number one. We don’t care what happens at Madrid. We negotiate price based on player quality and Barcelona spending criteria, not Madrid financial generosity.

Then through not being in a hurry, watching the other clubs playing the transfer poker while Barcelona keeps the cards close to the chest, with money included. We are not in a hurry, and even if we understand that the transfer market movement dictate some more spending, but the value of that “More” is the point. With that, we set the standards. And we marked the boundaries and margins.

Now what is exactly the transfer strategy? Lot of things should be taken in consideration while predicting Barcelona Transfer strategy this season, Including:

1) Next summer elections: I believe this is one of the vital factors taken in consideration . This board can’t afford failing in this transfer market. Next year title (The Liga at least), is a make or break for the survival of Laportism, or else Rossel is waiting behind the curtains. No matter what will the transfer strategy be, it’s the output of the season that will convince the fans if it was the right approach or not. One of the main accusations launched against Laporta last summer during the Vote of confidence is his hesitation to take revolutionary decisions (like changing coaches) when needed. He takes his time till things get more complicated before he goes for a solution. If this team failed to succeed next season, there will be lot of talks about lazy-cheap transfer approach, and there will be lot of comparisons with rivals (most of it will be Bias). Like it or hate it, this is our team culture.

2) The Marketing dimension: This is more a prediction, but I think only 30 % of any team fans (outside the Club origins) are definite fans. While there could be another 30% who are ready to have patience with the team for two or three seasons before changing clubs. The rest are more a Team-per-season fans, or just pick as the season is going. Something Perez know, and he took it in consideration when he did his transfers. You can’t afford losing 40% of your fan base to another clubs, just because they did some more attractive signings or because your team is underachieving. Marketing wise this could turn irreversible. Barcelona fan base is on the way up. But still there is a big slice of raw fans whom the team may lose if we don’t keep the same momentum. That’s why, regardless of the needs of the team (sports wise), we will sign at least one attractive name. Or else it will be a failure.

3) Learned the lesson: After Winning the CL against Arsenal, the team settled to success. Relaxed. Which backfired passively on the team performance for the following two years. New signings will not only create depth or improve the quality, it also regenerate the hunger. New players bring with them the desire of winning titles, which is infectious.

4) Our Squad quality and dressing room: In the other hand, While looking at our squad, we must not overlook the quality already exist. We have a great squad already. We do not need to add lot of big names. One expensive acquisition or two at most will be enough, then we move to get squad players. That’s the only way I see to keep the balance in the dressing room. The most complicated part is probable hijacking a heavy weight transfer.

But Who are the targets? Lot of names were mentioned during the transfer market, but the most notable targets are Vidic, Mascherano, Cesc, Ribery, Ibrahimovic, and Villa.

Vidic:

A great Player, but a bad transfer. He may create a perfect partnership with Pique, but for the cost vs. marketing Value, he is not an attractive option. Football wise he will strengthen the defense, but his overall contribution in improving the team performance will not match his cost. Besides, I prefer someone with more hunger to prove himself, someone who is willing to be benched as well.

Mascherano:

Football wise, The best transfer Barcelona can make to boost the midfield. Individually, he is by all means the best natural Defensive midfielder in the world. Physically strong, cover wide landscapes and has the leadership skills. He also play out of trouble, which is a need for a defensive midfielder, earning back the ball and passing it to the midfielders upfront. I can hear you: But where will that put Yaya?

That’s exactly where Mascherano presence contribute to enhance the system. While Yaya is serving his duty with his national team, Barcelona will have no worries. Mascherano and Busquets can do the job. When Yaya is back, the team will have numerous options and all needed based on games needs, but the most radical one goes as follows:

- Keeping Mascherano as a DM, and putting Yaya beside Xavi which is his natural position. He pass the ball perfectly, he has strong shots and when he run into the box you will have a Giant in the box for both Alves and Iniesta to cross the ball to, from the flanks. Specially if the team failed to sign a big striker. With Messi cutting into the center. This is an unbeatable receipt of football.

- Pep will be able to rotate without compromising the quality of DM position. Which is a very important position for Barcelona system. And the team will be secured against any injury crises at bad timing.

- Busquets will benefit from playing with this great Defensive midfielder. And he will still have his time share to start games. The Marketing Value of this transfer will not be as good as its football impact, so as long as it doesn’t exceed the 35 Millions, it is a good bargain.

Cesc:

I already detailed my argument about him in “Do we buy? Fabregas". I think if we will sign him, it will be next summer. As a voting booster for the elections. Marketing wise he may prove being a great earning. Football wise he can improve the overall squad quality, but the improvement will not match his transfer coast. So, even though it’s not the popular belief, As a cost-Benefit analysis it won’t be a bargain. And A Mascherano-Yaya-Xavi, will have more add-ons in the midfield than Yaya-Cesc-Xavi.

Ribery:

One of the mouthwatering targets. A very Versatile player. Team oriented, which is a need at Barcelona. His marketing value is huge, his football quality is undeniable. But I prefer Villa.

Villa:

My favorite striker for Barcelona is Ibrahimovic. But, if he is as expensive as rumored, then I will go for Villa. He is the perfect compromise to cover the unattainable plan to get both Ribery and Ibra. Villa can do everything Ribery can do on the left flank (offense wise), and he can play as a striker as well. If we signed him, he may start as a striker, but as the season goes, he will end up playing on the left while Henry plays as a striker. That’s of course, if Eto’o left.

His market Value is huge. His football quality is proven. He is one of the best finishers in the game and his skills are scary. Besides being well adapted to the Spanish league. Comparing him to Eto’o he is a better player, offense wise. But Eto’o is better for his defensive contribution. Villa physics will not give him the edge in that aspect even if he tries.

Ibrahimovic:

He was the club first option and its understandable. But it proved to be a very expensive deal to make so we are looking for alternatives. Yet, He is publicly hated. On the personal side, he has the ego of any striker, not to the extreme of Eto’o Ego for sure. When you play for Inter, being the unique hero, your ego show up with pride. When you play in another team where you are one of many quality players, your ego will not vanish, but it cool down. There are some Myths leading the judgments against him. Let’s take it one by one before looking to his impact for a team like Barcelona:

He doesn’t score enough goals:

Says who? Numbers? If we want to judge only based on numbers then we need to evaluate the numbers properly, or else we can find a striker playing for “nowhere republic” who scores more than any player we know. Lets compare him to eto’o:

This season Ibra scored 25 goals for a team that scores 70 goals in its league. That’s 35.7% of his team goals. Eto’o in return scored 30 Goals for Barcelona who scored 105 goals this season. That’s 28.6 % of his team goals. So as a main striker, Ibrahimovic contributes more in his team finishing than eto’o, even though there is no comparison between Eto’o suppliers (Xavi,Iniesta,Henry,Alves,Messi to name some) and Ibra suppliers (I can’t take any name seriously as a skillful supplier so you can name your own).

And it worth comparing how many goals the other goal scorers scored for the respective teams (Eto'o 30,Messi 23,Henry 19,Xavi 6, Alves 5, Iniesta 4) Vs (Ibrahimovic 25,Balotelli 8, Stankovic 5, Cambiasso 4, Sulley Muntar 4 Maicon 4) to sense where it’s easier to score. Because the more the rest of the squad scores, the more we can evaluate the amount of opportunities generated and we can benchmark the finishing skills of the striker to that's of his teammates who are facing the same opponent, rather than comparing it to a striker in another league. Adding to that, having more goalscoring options (Eto'o teammates 57 goals Vs Ibra Teammates 25 goals) force the opponent to spread the defense effort on many players, while if the striker is the only threat, he get all the defense crouded around him. All that make an impact on the striker scoring rate, beside the striker’s quality.

Going back to previous seasons will not change things much. If Ibra get the support Eto'o gets in Barcelona, he will change lot of peoples' opinions.

He has a poor record in the Champions’ league:

It’s true that in Champions league Ibra scored one goal this season in the CL, Eto’o scored four. But its true also that Barcelona scored 36 goals in the CL, while inter scored eight. Would that make a difference?

Last season Eto’o scored once in the CL, Ibra scored five. One year earlier (2006-2007) Ibra scored no goals in the CL, but how many goals eto’o scored back then? One. (2005-2006) Eto’o 6 goals/11 games, Ibra 3 goals/9 games. All in all, taking the teams they are playing for in consideration, we can’t say that Eto’o records were impressive while Ibra scoring is poor.

He vanishes in big games:

Ibrahimovic is not the first player who got this label. In fact almost every player with quality had this slogan hooked around his shoulders once. Its simple: When you are a player with quality, playing against weak teams, you can do everything on your own. You can generate your own scoring opportunities and score. When you play against strong opponent with quality players you need to count on the support of your teammates. Now who are exactly the skillful players in Inter to support Ibrahimovic? Who is his teammate upfront? Who are the players on the flanks to stretch the game and create spaces?

One man show does not work in big games, and that’s why quality players will only succeed in big games if supported by a team with an effective system. Why Messi is not as productive with his national team recently? Is he a big games Flop?

Regardless of Chemistry that make people love or hate, just like that. Ibrahimovic is a striker of his own level. Strong, with exceptional physical attributes, skillful and has the talent of linking with teammates. Having him between the skillful players of Barcelona will be a weapon of massive destruction. That’s exactly why Guardiola wanted him, he is not naive, he know exactly what he is bringing to the team. Its true we won without Ibra in the squad. But we won without any of the signings we will make this summer. Would that mean we stick to the squad we had?

And the same as Henry learned to run for the club as he never did for arsenal, Ibra who is younger and physically stronger can learn that as well. He wanted to move out of Inter not because he want more money (Inter would offer him anything to stay), he want titles. And that’s exactly what Barcelona need after winning a treble. Quality ambitious players with lot of hunger to win titles. And who will do anything to achieve something special.

What’s most likely happening is: Getting Villa and squad players.
The perfect transfer scenario for me is: Ibra and Mascherano. And squad signings.
The fantasy wish: Ibra (Striker), Villa (left) and Mascherano. And squad signings.

If neither Villa nor Ibra were available, Ribery plus Llorente can do the job as well.

Ramzi Tanani