Why is it happening? When I look back in history it seems that we won every time we had a “too good” squad to lose, not a squad that is “Good enough” to win. If that’s true, then we are traditionally over dependent on individuals’ potentials (plural) rather than the systematic potentials of the group=team. Is it a chronicle defect in our system and football methodology? Is it that difficult to Liquefy individual talents in a system? Is it only a bad luck? That’s a very controversial issue to discuss. Probably it was a different reason for each and every time we were knocked out. We must not exclude the fact that you play the elite clubs of the world in that competition and only one will win it. You can imagine the massive line of probabilities here. So…Lets focus on "now"! Are we going to win this one?
Champion’s league unique requirements:
Good performance in the league gives you confidence, belief, and motivation. If you gathered a wide margin of points to keep you little far from your league opponents, you can bench some players to be fresh for Champions league games. Yet, domestic success is not transferable to a Champions league certainty. More over, The league uniform style misleads you sometimes so you don't figure out some of your team defects. Unexpected defects pop up when you play against a club of different Football identity in tactics and style. For instance, I can’t find a team in Spain with the same physical character as Chelsea, or having the same pace/quality for counters as Man UTD, or having what I call “The confusing quality Mess” of Inter, or a solid midfield structure as Liverpool and the list is long. And it’s even more complicated to think of each team football methodology approaching the games, and the national football school they belong to.
The league is a title you can win if you collected the best players in your squad; players’ quality come first then tactical intelligence comes next –as a must- to compliment. In Champions league it’s almost the opposite, because its not if you have “the best” players but if you have the players of “enough quality” at a specific day to compete. “The best” lose some of its edge, having to compete with five or six other clubs who have “enough quality” to cause troubles. It makes the possibilities almost equal based on individuals’ qualities, then the tactical experience step in to become a deciding factor.
Being Confident yet anxious-Statistical overview:
I am optimistic. Not only because its my own nature, but also because the quality performance of barcelona is undeniable. If we want to list the reasons that make Barcelona the team to beat in the Champions’ league then we will need to write a book, not only a long LONG article like this one. But lets start with UEFA statistics:
- Goals scoring Rate in CL: Barcelona Comes first, scoring 18 goals, with an average of 3 goals per game. Whats interesting is that Lyon comes next, 14 goals making a rate of 2.44 goals per game.
- Goals Conceded: we are the second worst team between the ones qualified to knock out stages when it comes to goals conceded (8 goals, 1.33 goal per game), only Lyon picked the ball more from the net, 9 goals.
- Shots on Target: We are heading the list (54 shot till now with an average of 9 shots per game), between the clubs reaching the knock outs, Lyon comes next (52 shots, 8.67 per game).
- Possession Time: As expected, Barcelona comes first(Total:233 Min, 39 min as match average, percentage 62%), Man Utd follows (Total:211 Min, Av/game:35 Min, percentage 56%).
- Corners: 10th Place in group stages (35 corner), one corner more than Lyon!
Even though our possession game generated more scoring opportunities for us, yet it was not enough to avoid picking up the ball from our net more than any other qualified team, beside Lyon of course. Our Shots on target are not as many as it should be, taking in consideration our possession rates per game.
The Champions’ league will not be – and never been- a fruit to grab in a sunny funny picnic. Not even when you have the most gifted players in the world.
What do we really need to know, and to improve, in order to enhance our chances to celebrate in Rome?
We still have a problem dealing with Bus parking defense.
Yes I know, I Sound so obsessed about that, but its still a valid concern. As I already noted in “Crush the Bus” Pep was aware of this threat since the early beginnings, He didn’t get his man for the job. Now that the team is winning, it’s not an issue anymore.
Not an innocent question to ask: Had we really improved our game enough to consider this threat as history? And here I am not talking about the form, because the results explain it all. Barcelona form is much better now than ever! I am more focused on the tactical gadgets we have in our bags to use when needed. Are we generating more threats now when we play against the great wall of China, with a keeper hiding behind?
During Gijon game, Barcelona dominated 75 % of the first half possession, but they only managed to force the keeper to make two saves , Henry header (12th minute) and Iniesta shot (47th minute - first half). Our two goals came initially from counter attacks which is not a part of our system or any system against teams parking buses. We only scored when Gijon players- for a mysterious reason -decided to drive their bus forward ,out of the park to buy some Valdes cookies may be. They were caught out of position and paid for it dearly. Interestingly, this game generated less scoring opportunities than the Numancia game we lost at the beginning of the season. Back then, the team was heavily criticized, though the selection was the same and the tactical methodology was identical, only the luck we missed back then smiles this time.
I am aware that Guardiola is trying some more tricks either by encouraging Henry to cut more into the box, or through including Keita or Gudjhonsen beside Xavi in the midfield (as previously discussed in “Guardiola favorite, not the fans”). But it’s also true that the Xavi-Iniesta partnership as midfielders is more fascinating and it increases the team possession and dominance, even though it proved again and again it generate less threat in the opponent box(unless if Iniesta acted as Left wing while moving forward). Will Guardiola hand over some of the dominance to the opponent and add more threat at the opponent box in return? Will he stay loyal to Barcelona style: possession first then everything comes afterward? Each option has its positives and negatives.
Up till now, we played against teams having bicycles and they are parking it in front of their keeper. The teams having enough quality to really park buses are still to come. Are we prepared enough for that? I have lot of reasons to node my head confidently that “yes we do!” . But while we miss a "Henrik Edward Larsson" on the bench, I notice how many crosses Alves generates per game and how many of them were translated to goals. When I see that we barely take a shot from outside the box, and instead we keep trying to dribble and pass each and everyone in the stadium before facing the keeper. It makes this man wonder: if Our skillful gifted players failed through their short passing and dribbling skills to penetrate into the box and unlock the games against the well organizes and tactically disciplined quality squads of Chelsea, Man UTD, Inter, Liver….How good we need to be in set pieces to overcome this obstacle?
We need to upgrade our tactical movements to be able to break down passive tactics. We need more long range shots. We need more bodies in the box to avoid Eto’o isolation and to make Alves more excited. We need more width when we go forward. And we need more direct vertical passing during the defense-to-0ffense transition. Things are improving but we need to push it harder if we want to get there on time. All that will give a new dimension for our game, and a new edge for our chances to hunt this title.
New staff on board:
Every coaching staff needs time to assimilate all the scenarios the team may pass through during a game or a competition. Time is also needed for the players to gel and to create the perfect understanding and communicational channels between each other in the game. They need lot of games to get more accustomed to the new aspects the new coaching staff decides to install. This is not a matter of quality or experience as lot of observers doubted the decision of hiring Pep Guardiola as a coach. It’s a need for any coach in any team. And while in the liga the ship sailed smoothly faster than expected, in the champions’ league this is not something to take for granted. Coaches like Ferguson, Winger, Mourinho, Benitez, and Ancelotti failed before and learned from their mistakes. You can ask the Man Utd old guy about it and he will tell you. The only way to win this title is to plan for 180 minutes/2rounds game in Champions’ league knock out stages instead of a 90 Minutes match, and thats challenging enough. Something we will have no chance to try till needed in the Champions’ league. If we want to go with the norms, the Champions’ league season for Barcelona is next year. Yet, this team broke all the norms this season. With the big staff Guardiola hired to assist him, its possible that they will step over this norm as well, only time can tell.
The tactical challenge:
The way the team is performing in the liga, makes it inappropriate for Guardiola to be creative. The 4-3-3 is clicking like a Swiss watch. The opponents are dominated at home and on the road. But in the champions’ league, it’s a very risky approach to stick all the time to the 4-3-3 (3-1-3-3 while going forward). Barcelona will need to play some other combinations specially outdoors. We have the tools to do so, but its still untested and most importantly unpracticed for the guys to get used to it. That’s why I hope I see no more 5-0 results in the league. We needed it at the start of the season to raise moral, not anymore. After 3-0, and instead of keeping the same momentum that we know it works, I expect pep to make substitutions and try new things. Introduce new ideas for the guys to taste and test. play with two defensive midfielders so they start learning how to communicate. Try two pure strikers in the box. try a striker plus Messi as a free player. Why not trying to absorb the opponent and generate counters instead of keep pressing them in their own field. The 3-0 will make the opponent go forward when you give them a chance. Lets abuse these games so we get ready to deal with the situation when an opponent really push us back to our half, preventing us from playing our normal game. Do not get surprised when it happens. We must not get confused to play in a game we don’t dominate completely the way we are used to. In brief, we need to keep upgrading; it’s a must on the daily bases, not only when needed.
We have some indispensable players that we can’t afford to lose:
Its true that every team in the world has some irreplaceable players. But there are three factors that make us more fragile in this issue:
First, we do not apply a rigid tactical discipline. I am not complaining, It’s one of the reasons why Barcelona play entertaining football. Yet, usually the Key player of other teams apply a tactical role and get dissolved completely in the group, they do not have the same margin of freedom to express their own style– which has its advantages as well. Its easier to replace a player doing a standard role than a player with a role designed to fit him. Players’ individual skills and style is more crucial for Barcelona, because each player represent a piece in the tactical puzzle gluing the players together. And some of our Puzzle pieces are too exceptional to Copy.
And secondly: Most of the teams play a balanced offense tactics and defense tactics, Barcelona bases the tactical structure on offense, then arrange defense to fit the offense needs. It’s easier to replace a player- any player- when you play a more conservative style.
And the third reason :I call it the “Alves factor”. We have this player who is not only irreplaceable by the means of quality, but also because of his impact on the tactical structure. When Alves is not available, we do not only fail to replace him, but we can no more apply the same offense strategy. An automatic radical tactical change is needed to overcome his absence, re-balancing our offense .
Without ignoring the fact that Alves is one of the best two Right fullbacks in the world, Xavi is the pest playmaker in the world, Messi is the best player on the planet. You can’t compare the impact of Barcelona losing the best to the impact of other teams losing the rest. Losing the best players in any club is a problem, and it turns to become a catastrophe if they are the best of the best in the world, like kaka, C.Ronaldo, Essien, Casillas, Ibrahimovic, Gerrard, Torres, Del Piero, Totti and so on… We need to prepare contingency scenarios. Starting from the “Messi INdependency” mission will be a good move.
Mental approach:
We are much better than last season. Its obvious how the guys are fighting for every ball, their winning source is their unity, their killing instinct is their identity. But in the other hand, we are still easily irritated and dragged to the wrong game. I have noticed it in many games already. We are yet to install the nerves of steel, and that’s a MUST. One of the ways to contain Barcelona is to host them, with your fans trying to pull them out of the game, while your players provoke Barcelona players and try to turn the match to an aggressive physical game. That’s not our style, and the players need to be able to stay calm and stick to the style they do with excellence. Always drag the opponent to play your style, not the other way. Beside, we don’t need to be over obsessed to turn each and every game to an attractive carnival of passing and dribbling skills. Sometimes and after scoring only one goal, we start to over use the skills to entertain, risking the over all efficiency needed to kill the match. We lost lot of games and titles before because of this rooted tradition. If we can overcome the mentioned traps, we will definitely do well.
Ramzi Tanani
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10 comments:
This is the first part of this post. You'll be able to read the second part (inclusing some impressive graphics!) tomorrow.
I agree with you Ramzi and i see what you want from this team, and i do think too that the best is to come next year when pep's tactics are install, and i which that Barca can bring Ilorente next year so we can have more air and physical threat in the opponent box and get the most from Alves crosses(FOR ME ILORENTE IS LIKE HAVING HENRIK LARSSON BUT WITH MUCH MORE QUALITY).
but i do think that you forgot an important point in CL that you really need it to win,it's luck, i do beleive that we could of won the CL last year if we were lucky, we dominate the whole 2 rounds against manU with 4-3-3, we create more chances but the luck of having such as Zambrotta (which is fixed thanks god this year with best right back in the world) changed every thing and destroyed all the hard work of the team. I think that in the league you need quality and continuity and in the CL you need them all + luck..
Great Post !
Despite criticism I may have expressed in the past let me say this here and now. I love the way we play and the commitment to this style of playing is why I love the club.
Titles aren't the only evaluation of performance, maybe good for teams who are "less than a club". The joy I have experienced watching Barca this season will stay with me for many years, I have been downloading virtually every game I can to keep for posterity.
In response to your post though Ramzi, dont you think the last game against Betis had some important lessons for us. They seemed to apply a sort of full-court press (to use a basketball term) without really moving the defensive line up too much so that they had depth while defending and at the same time put pressure on our defenders. That could mean that at least defensively, our weakness might be better exposed when the field is stretched rather than compressed. English teams, particularly Liverpool might be very adept at this.
I would like to see a formation with Xavi playing deeper (takeover the ball from the centre-backs earlier) and Messi behind 2 fwds to deal with this.
The point you made about our formation being heavily dependent on Alves is quite worrying. A wonder that a player who joined only this season has become so irreplacable.
we lost the last two champions league because of poor defensive errors.. marquez heading back the ball in box when he should of put it out for a corner, cause he didn't know who was behind him and zambrotta doing the same with scholes. i like barca because they stay the same whether their losing or winning and don't stop playing with flair until the end and don't change their style of football as quickly as manu and real do when it gets tough.. i like ur article and changing system and trying new things while keeping the attacking flow is great except for the ending when u said *over obsessed to turn each and every game to an attractive carnival of passing and dribbling skills* if barca where to ever play a boring game the fans will have their head. i back barca cause their different and i hope they keeping playing this way.
ramzi, great article again...
can u write something about barca's worries with set-pieces? currently that is what is worrying me the most..
our articles like our team mostly focus on offense.. all the graphics we show too are about our forwards. maybe u can make some graphics to point out the weaknesses of our defense line and some stats like who has made most errors or who has cleared the ball the most etc.
maybe this will shed some light on why we are letting in goals from set pieces.
i'll help u with gathering data if u want.
In Barcelona the moto is "not only winning, but winning beatiful".
It is a way of looking that most trainers have to execpt.
(look, if a backplayer passes the boll to the goalkippers it is wissling: those things does not happen so often in other big teams stadiums).
Then, all the attention is on the offensive and the chose of 4-3-3 is also a sign of offensiva ideologi.
I can not remeber Barca playing something like 4-5-1.
Another thing is how the younger players is working in la Masia. Already as a younger you learn the passing stile of fotboll. Xavi and Iniesta learned that as children. They can not play different when they become adults (the same with Fabregas who learned his fotboll in the same acadamy).
The tradition of offensive and the passing stile is too strong.
Most of the CL winners before had also a tactical defensiva way of playing. But not all the time.
Real Madrid succed winning some titles with the same stile as Barca. I mean by controling the boll as much as possible and thinking offensive.
So it can work sometimes.
Barca is like the Netherlands national team of the seventhith.
Amayzing beautiful and offenisve fotboll that shocks the world,
but WITHOUT a worldcup title.
We get losing some titles because of the idiologi, but it doesn't matter.
I dont want Barca to start playing like Juve.
And we need lots of LUCK.
i'd just like to point out the deceptiveness of some of these stats, as we conceded 3 goals in the final group stage game (which was meaningless, as we'd already qualified in the top spot in the group) against Shakhtar when we played what was essentially our B-team. so our real "goals conceded" in meaningful games is 5, far better than next to last. certain other stats, like Possession, might be artificially deflated as a result of that match as well.
something to bear in mind.
Lot of answers about the comments mentioned will be cleared out in the second part.
BA: you may discover that even without last game results, my defense concerns are completely Valid, actually even with the last game impact, still numbers above do not show how bad we were defensively. Thats why i kept it by intention.
Very interesting article. I agree though that in Europe our defense will be a major concern. Set pieces and counter attacks are our biggest threats defensively and in knockout stages defensive mistakes make all the difference.
One more thing:
I believe the major threat from Lyon will be Juninho. The guy is a free kick/distance shot specialist and I feel he will score.
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