A very interesting debate started “HERE”, about the worth of fighting for the Spanish Cup, and how may that effect the club chances to win la liga, and the champions league. Some fans confessed that: “If we lose in the cup, I will be glad”, and thats understandable for being so dispirit to win the champions instead, but is it true that winning against Espanyol hammered our chances in the CL so we cried desperately demanding a defeat against our hated rivals?? And now against Mallorca? Can we win the treble? Or we need to pick two out of three? Or one title will stamp a successful season? But most importantly, do we really have the luxury to pick any guaranteed choices?
Where do we stand at the moment in the three competitions?
La liga
Played 21 games, gathered 56 points creating a Margin of 12 points far from the nearest opponent battling in the second place. Keeping in mind a reasonable prediction that every team WILL lose AT LEAST 6 more points out of the remaining 51 points till the end of the season, that will give you at least18 points risk margin, in the other hand, winning against Real Madrid 2-0 in the classico first leg earned us a virtual extra point (So the margin is virtually 19 points) advantage, a Virtual point we will only lose if Real Madrid prevented us from scoring any goal at their home defeating us 3-0 in the el Classico second leg (Sorry, but unlikely). Dropping less than this margin of points in the following 17 games guarantee you the liga.
Our closest Opponent-Real Madrid- will not get any better in my opinion, I think in the previous few games they got everything they wish, the psychological boost of changing the coach, played without injuries (talking about the players who will serve them till the end of the season and excluding the long term injuries), their players hit the peak and offered the best performance they can, specially Robben and Diarra the second, and got the supernatural help of refereeing mistakes. Still, they only grabbed points but the performance was awful as Real Madrid fans admit. The following page will not be as shiny specially if it happened and they knocked out Liverpool in the Champions’ league, because that will suck the energy out of their shallow squad that lack depth. Not to mention the out of field crises they have and will no doubt leave an impact on the over all performance.
The other opponents are quality, yet for different reasons they don’t have the “it” to be taken seriously as title contenders, but only as bothersome competitors at their best.
Champions’ league
Atlético, Porto, Lyon, Barcelona, Arsenal, Roma, Internazionale, Man United, Real Madrid, Liverpool, Chelsea, Juventus, Villarreal, Panathinaikos, Sporting, and Bayern.
That’s the Bowl of teams standing in a row to try to win the title. The most certain fact we know is that we will play Lyon in the following stage, and hey! It’s not a finished business! Now after knocking out Lyon, the other teams results will define our path, if the English or Italian teams dominated their opponents then we –Barcelona FC- will be in the row of “The Others” standing near the wall for the dominant English/Italian clubs to pick their opponents from the rest of other nations’ clubs, so we will play against (Arsenal/Roma-Man utd/Inter-Chelsea/Juventus-or Liverpool). If the Spanish clubs dominated (and it happens if the England vs Italian clubs games knocked out a mix of both and Real Madrid did that miracle we know) then the Spanish clubs will be the ones to pick opponents from “The others” and that will give us a better chance to be drawn against the only light opponent (Sporting if they defeated Bayern) or else – again- one of the Italian/English big boots mentioned above added to Bayern. The last condition will be a “non dominance nation” results, where a mix of Spanish-Italian-English clubs qualify and that may offer us the best scenario to pick a non Italian/English club like Porto, Panathinaikos, Sporting or Bayern (if we can label the Bavarian as an easier opponent) and theoretically that will be the best –easiest- option to keep going forward.
Conclusion: The Best scenario is: Porto defeats Atletico and Panathinaikos defeats Villarreal creating options for us to be drawn against Porto or Panathinaicos if Real Madrid knocks out Liverpool preventing English clubs from being the dominant nation picking from others, and the Three English vs Italian clubs games end up promoting two-and-three from each country. The result will be then: Two clubs from Spain, two/three from England, and Three/two from Italy, added to Panathinaikos, Porto and Sporting/Bayern. That will give us a 50/50 chance to get it easy in the following stage.
Some may wonder why bothering ourselves in all these storming probabilities, “we have the best squad so get me any team!!!” calm down dude... Knowing that my next article will be about Champions league I will not go more in details about our Champions’ league challenge, all what I will say for now is that this is a knock out competition, the “Weaker” the opponents you get on the way are, the less you will be threatened by an unpleasant surprise. We know in knock out stages surprises happen all the time, and surprise in football means based on my Foxford Dictionary –yes with “F”- Surprise: the best team LOSE.
YES, I pray to get one of the teams that lack the quality needed to create a surprise so they don’t get advantage of a Barcelona Bad day in the wrong timing. That’s a part of what’s Called “Champions’ luck”.
Beside, Listing the scenarios mentioned above makes it more exciting to follow the rest of the games results beside our game, and strangely will make those who wish Real Madrid the worse usually, to wish them the best for their game, ONLY for that one! It also has a sweet flavor that they open an easier Path for us to win the Champions’ league because I can’t see them doing two miracles in one season, just one at most (beating Liverpool). Note: I don’t mind to live in the era where Barcelona and Real Madrid Meet in the Champions’ league Final, God! Just imagine!
Furthermore, and linked to our Road Map to titles, there is a chance we secure a good result against the likes of Porto in the first leg so the second leg becomes less demanding physically saving our players energy –as we demand when we ask to drop the cup- but with all my respect to our squad brilliance its unlikely happening against an English/Italian opponent.
All in all, Champions league is too complicated to put all your eggs there. So we need to ride the Challenge to win it without allowing that challenge to ride us.
Spanish Cup:
As we all know, we are three games far from the title, we already played six games against Benidorm, Atletico and Espanyol back and forth where none of the games was an easy trip. To win the title we need to pass Mallorca and then challenging either Sevilla or Bilbao in the final.
Do we drop the cup?
First of all, if Pep Guardiola and Co are asking themselves this question, it’s automatically a notable strategic mistake from their behalf. The mistake they committed is not discussing the option, but discussing it NOW. Usually Coaches set their objectives at the beginning of the season, and only reconsider it if something unavoidable and unexpected happens during the season –Injury crises, Drop in form, ect…- or if they figured out the early objectives set were not realistic or attainable. No injury crises on the horizon –We are still in the minimal rate of injures per season and we will get one of our long term injured guys back, Milito- and drop in form? Are you kidding me? So there is no need for the original plans to be changed. But what are the original plans?
For a big team like Barcelona, the target will never be “reaching the semi finals”, it’s either fighting for the title or ignoring it and handing it to the second string of players to test their potentials and polish their talents. In brief, the objective from the start was winning this cup, or else we would have seen more of Pedro, Víctor Vázquez, Thiago, Maric, Jeffren, Rochina, Abraham, Gai, Xavi Torres and Corcoles beside Victor Sanchez, Caceres, Busquets and Bojan lead by Sylvinho and Pinto as grandfathers. But for Guardiola to reach this stage then consider dropping it, that’s nonsense. NO NOT NOW, after Puyol started three out of the six previous games and got involved in a forth, same as Iniesta, Yaya played Three out of six, Messi Started three and Got involved in two other matches, Marquez two out of six, and Guess what?! Alves – the only defender we can’t afford to lose - Played five out of the six games; we were not pushing ourselves to that edge even in the Champions’ league group stage. NO NOT NOW, it’s too late to start saving batteries or else the already burned energy Bottles were wasted for free. I don’t see us in the “Cut down the loss” situation, so the only way is forward from now and on, hunting for a title that makes it worth all the risks, efforts and sacrifices made till now in this competition. Either you do it “Arsenal way” or “Chelsea way” from the beginning when you deal with a secondary title, you can’t start a Chelsea then switch to an Arsenal in the last 100 meters, because this way you lose the positives of the two methods, neither you win it with the big boys nor you give the young boys a chance to gain experience. How smart is it to take a daring risk selecting our indispensible players against Benidorm to reach the semi finals and hand the rest of the trip willingly to Mallorca?
But relax, I don’t think pep has that in mind, first because he know the story of the dog who was walking on the lake side with a piece of meat in his mouth, he looked to the lake and on the water surface he saw another dog with a bigger piece of meat between his Jaws, he threw the one he had away and jumped to the water for the big one to figure out that it was only his image on the water surface. It was too late because till he understood that, an eagle landed on the ground grabbed the meat and flied away. Pep know that the most definite titles to win are the liga and the copa del Rey, he will not drop any of it by intention just because the team is running for the champions’ league, “I will get the guaranteed ones and do my best in that tough title of Europe” that’s what he is thinking of, or that’s what I wish.
That’s the first reason, the second reason is the fact that the cup matches impact on the players’ fitness level is not as radical as its felt, nor it has that big effect on the team performance in the other competitions specially the champions’ league. If we look close to the rest of the Cup games, there is a chance that only one game may demand players energy before Liga and non will create any trouble for the Champions league games, and thats the following Mallorca game, first leg. Here is the schedule linked to the closest Liga/champions’ league games:
Game (A): 01 Feb Racing - FC Barcelona (Then 4 days to next game)
Game (B): 05 Feb FC Barcelona - RCD Mallorca (Then 3 days to next game)
Game (C): 08 Feb 19:00 FC Barcelona - R. Sporting de Gijón (Then 7 days to next game)
Game (D): 15 Feb --:-- Real Betis - FC Barcelona (Then 7 days to next game)
Game (E): 22 Feb --:-- FC Barcelona - RCD Espanyol (Then 4 days to next game)
Game (F): 24 Feb 20:45 O. Lyon - FC Barcelona (Then 3 days to next game)
Game (G): 01 Mar --:-- At.Madrid - FC Barcelona (Then 3 days to next game)
Game (H): 04 Mar --:-- RCD Mallorca - FC Barcelona (Then 4 days to next game)
Game (I): 08 Mar --:-- FC Barcelona - Ath.Bilbao (Then 4 days to next game)
Game (J): 11 Mar 20:45 FC Barcelona - O. Lyon (Then 4 days to next game)
Game (K): 15 Mar --:-- UD Almería - FC Barcelona (Then 4 days to next game)
In this schedule, the first important remark is that the first leg of Copa del Rey game against Mallorca Game (B) has nothing to do with the first leg of the Champions’ league game against LYON Game (F), twenty days separate the two games. Beside, we already know that there will always be at least a liga game separating any two games in Copa del Rey and Champions’ league and that liga game is the one that will has most of the impact on the players form and preparations for the Champions’ league, any simple knock in that liga match rule out the player from the following game in the champions league(3 days later), while from Cup to Champions’ league you have at least eight days, so resting a player in the Cup and selecting him in the league game before Champions’ league is too creative to be effective. Practically if you need a fully fit player for a CL game, you need to rest him in the liga game that introduce the CL week.
Mallorca is struggling against relegation in the liga, if they are little smart they will not burn their energy in the cup against Barcelona – even Espanyol figured that out- so at our home they may rest their key players, and my trick is the opposite of the popular method of rotation, I recommend that we play the best selection we have in that game, Game (B), we have what it takes to score enough goals in this game to cancel any importance for the return leg Game (H), so we can use a second class selection there. Using first class selection at home against Mallorca is not a big risk knowing that there is an easy schedule for the following two weeks -One game per week-so the players will have enough time to recharge their batteries, we finish the opponents hope in the first game, and then focus on the liga title while playing the Champions’ league stages in the following two months-March and april, Knowing that The Copa del Rey Final is on May 13, so till then it will only be Liga and Champions.
The trickiest Phase is the last slice of the season, the month of May, and here how it goes:
26 Apr Valencia CF - FC Barcelona
28/29 Apr Champions League Semi-finals
03 May Real Madrid - FC Barcelona
5/6 May Champions League Semi-finals
10 May FC Barcelona - Villarreal CF
13 May Copa Del Rey Final
17 May RCD Mallorca - FC Barcelona
24 May FC Barcelona - Osasuna
27 May Champions League finals
31 May Deportivo - FC Barcelona
Last six games of the season (Liga games), means last 18 points. If we reached the champions’ league final then obviously the key players will be rested against Osasuna because they will be too cautious to play that game anyway scared of getting injured or exhausted, and in this situation the second class selection offer you even more than the key players, so no case for the final. I think we can afford resting players at least in one of the two games against Valencia and Real Madrid depending on the point’s gap and the result we get in the Champions’ league first leg. Till then there will be enough time to plan things, if we kept the 12 points difference between us and Real Madrid, then we can afford resting our players against Valencia, Real madrid and Ossasuna knowing that it doesnt mean an automatic loss. Yet, the most important fact is , again, the Copa del Rey final will have no impact on the Champions’ league, because the Champions’ league semi Finals are played before the cup Final, and there are two weeks period between the Copa del Rey final and the Champions’ league final.
The conclusion is: to have a better chance in the Champions’ league, the rotation in the liga matches is the key while the cup games impact is not big enough to make us blow all the effort made to reach this stage. I support the idea of going all the way hunting for the three titles, first because you always need to seek getting the best out of what you have through being extremely efficient, and secondly because I don’t think if the season is planned well, targeting the three titles will dramatically change the club hopes to gain the most important ones. Beside, the only Competition we can actually guarantee if we focused all our potentials to win is the liga, while the champions league will never be guaranteed even if we forgot about both the liga and the Cup and only focused on that single competition (Champions league), the same goes for the Spanish cup.
I hope this will help everyone to make his/her own map for the season, evaluating every game importance and scheduling priorities.
Ramzi Tanani
Posts
16 comments:
Great analysis, and it's why I've been calling for us to dump the Copa, particularly now that we can do it against Mallorca and not give succor to any Parakeets.
That May period comes on the heels of a couple of intense, multi-match periods coming up, facing a fatigued side. And as we all know, fatigue=errors and injuries.
I think the treble would be a legitimate reality to consider if Keita and Hleb were anything approaching what we thought we'd signed, Gudjohnsen was more consistently good and we could get more out of Krkic.
But as it is, those players coming up short means that Yaya has to play a ton, as do Xavi and Iniesta. The emergence of Busquets helps, but not enough.
Having said all that, the treble would be awesome. I just don't see how it can happen, given the squad rotation that we have at present.
But man, would I love to be wrong.
I cant help but getting a very bad feeling about the schedule in May. The 12 point lead we currently have makes things easier and might just turn out to be a lifesaver for the league title.
Spot on analysis Ramzi, but you managed to scare me :)
Ramzi...
those are just awesome stats... tooooo gudd... watever it is, we are tooo late to drop anythin... Gooooo Barca... any title would do... titles sorry.... :)
La ligA! copa! and championS!
1 2 3
Great to have u back Ramzi, great work again though before reading I first scrolled down to see how long it was n I was disappointed, only 7 pages. :)
Well, gotta agree with u on this one. It would be pretty stupid to drop out of a tournament we have a very good chance of winning with just 3 games left.
Besides how foolish does it look to play all the way to the semifinals and then start playing a reserve team like as though our intention all the while was to get to the semis. And this while we are at the strongest position we have ever been w.r.t winning the league.
The only bone I have to pick is with your suggestion that we go all out in the Copa first leg.
I understand that taking the pressure off the 2nd leg would certainly ease things
but i think right now the players are starting to look a bit tired n jaded I would like Guardiola to use the Mallorca first leg n the next 2 Liga matches to regain the form of bench players like Hleb, Gudjohnsen, Bojan, Pedro, Caceres because we just might need them as an alternative later in the season.
It would be nice if these guys get some continuous playing time n gain confidence enough to make the choice b/w them n the starters a difficult one.
I have to go with Kxevin on this one. I do not think we have enough quality in depth to go for all three. I think trying to go for all three might mean we get knocked out of both competitions. It is going to be hard enough as it is rotating players to secure the league and fight in the CL. Now we also have to think about the cup. Which, like Ramzi pointed out, we simply cannot give up on now since we started so many top players early on. We almost have to continue playing at least a few big names. We have come this far now, we might as well win the next 3 games and the cup, but at what expense? I cannot see us losing the cup now because it seems that Pep wants to win it as much as any other competition. He has shown this with some of his starting lineups/subs. None of the teams left should really get in our way if Pep decides he wants to win this. The CL on the other hand is a diff story if all our key players are not 100%.
The only way i can see us doing all three is if we rest players in the league more often. Treat some of the league games as we should have treated the cup games IMO. We certainly have the breathing space, we can afford to draw or even lose a game or two. Madrid wont win every game from now till the end of the season. Neither will any of the other contenders. I think we could drop 7 points and still win the league comfortably.
I think the treble now depends a lot on who we draw in the final rounds of the CL. If we draw Liverpool or one of Inter/Man Utd then we are going to have a tough time. These games will require the utmost intensity, our forwards will have to be on fire and our midfield fluid.
Who knows maybe with a bit of luck we will win all 3, but we will need that bit of luck.
I remember saying at the start of this season, I would be happy with just the league and I stand by that. I feel some fans are getting a bit too greedy. This team is just starting, what we hope, is a very long cycle. Next season, with a few more players, we will have a much better shot at the treble.
I think a big win against Mallorca in the first leg will make things easier releasing the pressure off the guys shoulders while they are preparing for Lyon game.
While for the Final of Copa Del Rey, we can always have a choice, if we were comfortable in the league- and There are lot of indications that we will- then we can be generous wasting some Liga points in May, or else we can hope that Sevilla will be competing for a better position to earn a champions league place in the liga schedule and the two teams use a second string in the cup. If sevilla would do so.
On the short term, I was certain after the Sunday game that Alves, Marquez, and Pique will be suspended in the cup but now that everyone is questioning it, I don't know.
I think we can plan smartly for the following two games, something like this:
Against Mallorca: Sanchez-Caceres-Abidal-Sylvinho-Yaya-Xavi-gudjhonsen-Messi-Henry- Bojan.
Against sporting: Alves-Marquez-pique-Abidal- Busq-Iniesta-Keita - Bojan -eto'o -henry.
I am counting on a hunch that soon Real Madrid form will collapse, even though we are suspending players for them when they play whom we played one week earlier, Aranzubia last week, and Munitis this week, but still i see them losing momentum after the first defeat, when we become 15 points far and they had no club to threaten their second position from behind(they are creating a margin there laready), they will try to focus more on the CL, counting on the fact that Juande Ramos is more a cup coach, and that will give us an advantage to approach the "croudy" May with lot of savings in our points account.
Oh man, you did it again. A great analysis with plenty good ideas.
Some comments:
First Real Madrid – No man. I can never wish them to win, never.
I will pray for Liverpool!
About the CdR – if Barca goes all the way to the final it means 9 extra matches, 4 abroad.
It is a lot when the schedule is already tough enough. And you can not only consider the impact of a match in copa only to the nearest liga/Cl match.
It can influence even in longer time terms, as if someone will be injured, or simply tired.
Look at Alves last two matches. He is starting to be tired and needs rest. The extra 5 matches in copa did it only harder.
This season in the CdR we even got very difficult opponents. At. Madrid, Espanyol, Mallorca (not as easy as people think) and maybe Sevilla in the final.
Not an easy walking.
But I understand Pep however. We didn’t win the cup for 10 seasons and it can be wonderful to win it. It is also easier to win the cup then the CL. If we will win two tropics this season (CdR + league) it will be wonderful. More then everyone did expect before the season started.
It is the same problem in all big leagues. The cup competitions lost its value. I think the value started to decrease when uefa took away the cup-winner-cup competition. Maybe they have to bring it back?
About the CL – most teams that come to quarterfinal have more and less the same level, and they can beat each other.
It is lots of luck in those stages. You need to have the gods with you.
Look at the last final. If John Terry didn’t miss and if he didn’t lose the balance exactly when shooting, and if it was not rainy. So many if.
But of course we want to be with. All culés can still dream seeing Puyol high with his winnings hands in Olympia stadium in Roma
Does anyone know for sure if suspended players can serve it in the Copa? Players have done it in the past, Negredo most recently. Man, would that help. That and a faith healer for Puyol.
http://www.fcbarcelona.cat/web/english/noticies/futbol/temporada08-09/02/n090202107056.html
Based on this post on barcelona official website, if Alves appeal Declined then he will be suspended in the following Liga game.
We can conclude that the players will be available for the cup and suspended in the liga.
Now come? I don't know, completely confused.
Updated:
http://www.fcbarcelona.cat/web/english/noticies/futbol/temporada08-09/02/n090201107045.html
Its clear for Barcelona official site, the left column, the suspensions are in the liga.
I say let Alves serve out his ban against Gijon. He is going to have to do it eventually so better its against such a weak team. We should be able to outscore them even if they do get a goal or two. I also think it will be a good test for Caceres, who i still want to see more of. Plus Alves really needs a rest right now, he will prob play against Mallorca as well.
The best thing now for Barca is to kill Mallorca , score more than 4 Goals and finish this Semi Final match , the return match will play all B Teams and go through the Final.
There is one easy match for Barca (returning against mallorca)
Second thing is : rest players as much as u can against Sporting Gijon , play 6 out of 11 B-Team players , and just get a 1:0 win to keep the advantages of 12 .This can be a big help for MESSI , HENRY , XAVI , TOURE , PUYOL , ALVES . In 2 Games they can rest 90 % of the first team .
For the future last Games i just hope Barca will ensure the League at least 6 Game before the end .
Second thing , Barca can destroy Olympic Lyon on the first leg and play the next game as a formal game , i know they can do it against Lyon and also if they can be Lucky on the Semis to play against Panatinaikos or Porto than this is more than lucky season .
Hope we can achieve all three and not dropping any of the competitions .
VIVA BARCA viva Messsssiiii
Another view point. What if we meet EE in CL semifinal. Then the schedule will be the same for us and them. We beat them 4-0 in the first leg in the Madrid. Walk out to a guard of honor having won the league three days later and beat them 5-0 at their own den and then beat them 6-0 in the second leg in the Camp Nou.
I still remember the 2001/2002 season when EE beat us in the CL semifinal (beating us for the first time in 20 years in the Camp Nou) and it still hurts even today. I want revenge for that. I am praying that they win against Liverpool.
I think the rule is that you cannot play a Copa game if you had a direct red card. Two yellows (or the fifth yellow) only count for the Liga.
One thing I disagree with is that I would like to see at least one difficult opponent after Lyon. I think in the 1/4's and semi's it is good to face a good team because it would keep us focused. I think it would be very bad if we blew out teams like Pana and Porto, in the 1/4s and semi's, and are then overconfident vs any big team in the final.
It will be interesting to see how the CL ro 16 plays out; as of now it seems very hard to predict winners. In league play Atletico and Villareal have been very bad while all four English teams and the two Italian teams have been poor or inconsistent. I would say the only sure things should be us over Lyon and Bayern over Sporting; besides that there could be any number of upsets, so it will be interesting to see who we might get if/as we progress.
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