Hello all, and welcome to the first of Stigsby’s Statistics!
We all have an exciting month ahead of us and with a win against Sporting we can finally focus on it! Lately a subject has been raised by Ramzi that has caught my interest, the effect of wins and losses against rivals, something which is very relevant for the upcoming games. We are all aware of the effect of winning, meaning that you will get 3 points while the opponent will get 0, very easy to see and grasp, but what is more interesting to look at, is the after-effects. Will there be an effect on the next games? Will it have a definite result on the final outcome of the season or will it just apply to the normal point pool?
For most of you out there, I know that you prefer to keep numbers out of football, but stay with me here. Football is a game of 11 vs. 11, the same terms for both teams, but yet one team comes out on top. What is more relevant is, that it is usually the same teams coming out on top and the same teams losing. What I’m trying to say is that there must be some sort of truth in the numbers, after all, everyone predicts Barcelona and Real Madrid to finish in the top 3, and mostly they do. This prediction is a result based on previous seasons, strengths of the teams and a whole lot of other variables, meaning, that your brain basically does a whole calculation for you without you even thinking about it!
To look at the effects of the rival-matches we will first need some statistical data. As we’re not even halfway, the current season will not give us adequate data to perform a precise and accurate calculation, so we will focus on the season of 07/08. During this post I will focus on the top 5 teams, continuing Ramzi’s initial post. One must keep in mind here, that it is not the true rivals we’re focusing on here, but the top title contestants.
Real Madrid 85 2,2 17,9 21
Villareal 77 2,0 16,2 15
FC Barcelona 67 1,8 14,1 7
FC Sevilla 64 1,7 13,5 9
Atletico Madrid 64 1,7 13,5 7
Points Point average Points expected against rivals Points achieved against rivals
The first thing we can look at is the strength of the title contestants within, meaning how well do they perform against each other. To make a fair comparison we will have to do some simple calculations. To begin with we first calculate the point average pr game, this will give us a picture of the general form of the team during the season, by multiplying that with 8, the 8 matches against the other four top 5 contestants, we will get the expected amount of points against rivals. As shown on the first table we can see, not surprisingly, that Real Madrid last season had a very high bottom-level with an average of 2,2, and on top of that, they “over-performed” against rivals, meaning that they in the end took the title. The rest of the top 4 teams have in fact “under-performed” against rivals last season, giving them fever points achieved than statistically expected.
Now that we have looked at the performance of the top teams, let’s look at the effects of the results of the matches. What is normally put forward is the effect on the team moral after a win/loss. It is very difficult to put a number on the feelings of the specific players, so we will have to find another way to calculate the effect. To do that we can look at the results achieved in the first, the second and the third match after the rival match and see how the team performs compared to the seasonal average. In this calculation I have excluded the results after a draw, as a draw will leave both of the teams at point zero compared to each other, and should therefore be expected to have no substantial influence.
Our initial instinct tells us, that a loss against a rival would lead to a loss in team moral and thereby have a negative influence on our future short-term performances, meaning losing a match against a rival, would lead to a greater loss in points in the next three matches than the seasonal average. So let’s look what the actual numbers tells us:
After win
Real Madrid 2 2,3 2,0 2,1 2,2
Villareal 1,4 1,4 1,8 1,5 2,0
FC Barcelona 1,5 3,0 2,0 2,2 1,8
FC Sevilla 1,5 0,0 0,5 0,7 1,7
Atletico Madrid 0 2,0 3,0 1,7 1,7
Overall 1,3 1,7 1,9 1,6 1,9
First match Second match Third match Three game average Season average
After loss
Real Madrid 3,0 1,0 3,0 2,3 2,2
Villareal 1,3 3,0 2,3 2,2 2,0
FC Barcelona 1,4 2,2 2,0 1,9 1,8
FC Sevilla 1,2 1,2 1,0 1,1 1,7
Atletico Madrid 1,6 2,2 3,0 2,3 1,7
Overall 1,7 1,9 2,3 2,0 1,9
First match Second match Third match Three game average Season average
On the first of the two tables we can see the results after a win and on the bottom one the results after a loss.
What is most surprisingly by these results are, that it seems that the teams actually perform better after a loss than after a win. There seems to be a negative effect on the first match right after a rival match, for both a win and a loss. This can easily be explained by the extra effort put into the match by the players, meaning that they will be worn out in the next match. What is interesting here though, is that the effect seems to be bigger after a win rather than after a loss, there actually seems to be a dive in form right after a win, whereas after a loss there seems to be no real effect. What is even more interesting is, that there actually seems to be quite a positive effect after a loss, the team actually performs better over the next three matches after a loss than during the rest of the season.
Keep in mind that this does not have anywhere near enough data included, as I would have to include several seasons and a blend of different leagues, to give a scientifically viable result. This is only a result of the last seasons 32 intra-rival games, however I think it’s safe to draw one vital conclusion: The wins and losses against rivals does NOT have such a vital effect that they are often put out to be. The matches against rivals are merely a battle of prestige and bragging-rights, and are most likely not having a ground-breaking effect on the final season outcome.
Ps: This is merely an attempt to clarify the effects of rival matches. I have chosen to keep the calculations as simple and open as possible, as I do not wish to influence the result of this paper. If you disagree with any of the calculations or have any doubts as to have I made them, please post your criticism.
Pps: Even though my results tends to prove that there is no beneficial effect by winning over the rivals, let’s hope the Barca players never see this article and beat the hell out of them on the 14th of December ;)
Stigsby